by kraada » Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:43 pm
The short answer is unlucky.
The longer answer is that variance is actually fairly large and you have to recall that you will almost never have your actual result match your expected result (unless you have 100% or 0% equity, or are guaranteed a chop), so over the short term it is going to fluctuate wildly. Only in the very long run should it converge on the same number - though I've seen respected intelligent mathematically minded posters here and on 2+2 express skepticism of that assertion on the basis that stack size differences as well as skill differentials will lead to divergences for tournament players at a bare minimum and potentially for all players. Unfortunately I don't have a citation handy for that post.